FOX SPORTS Statto, Lawrie Colliver, has worked his way through the numbers and has a look at the Big Final of this years KFC T20 Big Bash League between two “hot” teams, the Scorchers and the Heat.
The B Final in Perth promises to be a fantastic encounter. On the back of two riveting Big Semi Finals, the match shapes up for all the right reasons to be a tight affair, between two teams that have peaked at the right time.
Statistically, lets look at the strengths of the sides.
BATTING (in possible order)
| Perth |
Runs |
SR |
Brisbane |
Runs |
SR |
| S Marsh |
396 |
134 |
Pomersbach |
360 |
146 |
| Gibbs |
186 |
123 |
Forrest |
91 |
100 |
| Voges |
219 |
149 |
Burns |
205 |
124 |
| Katich |
82 |
141 |
Christian |
157 |
119 |
| North |
97 |
92 |
Lynn |
170 |
145 |
| Hussey |
25 |
119 |
Hopes |
77 |
101 |
Overall, based on those numbers there is not a lot between the teams. Marsh and Pomersbach almost cancel one another out in basic numbers. Injuries to Gibbs and Hopes may see them both out so they could cancel out as well. Voges and Burns are very even, but there appears to be a slight advantage with Christian and Lynn slightly strong than Katich and North. All up though, not a lot in it.
The best batting match-up of the Big Final appears to be the clash between Marsh and Pomersbach. Ponder over these figures in the last three games, including their balls per boundary (BPB) rate:
| MARSH |
POMERSBACH |
| Runs |
BF |
BPB |
Runs |
BF |
BPB |
| 56 |
45 |
5.6 |
37 |
34 |
6.8 |
| 79 |
60 |
6.0 |
82 |
42 |
2.8 |
| 68 |
40 |
3.6 |
231 |
146 |
3.9 |
| 203 |
145 |
5.0 |
231 |
146 |
3.9 |
| Strike Rate = 140 |
Strike Rate = 158 |
Pomersbach has an edge over Marsh in Strike Rate and Balls per Boundary. Marsh looks to bat more through the innings and really accelerate later in his knock. He was just 19 off 22 balls in the Big Semi Final against the Stars before tearing into Alex Keath, taking
27 off an over.
Overall, there’s not a lot between the teams in batting, but Gibbs is ruled unfit then the Heat may have an advantage.
As for the bowling, there is one distinct difference. The Scorchers have two very useful spinners (Hogg and Beer) whilst the Heat have the experienced Nathan Hauritz who hasn’t picked up the wickets he would have liked. See below:
| |
Wkts |
Avge |
Econ |
Comp. 4 overs |
| Hogg |
10 |
20.4 |
7.0 |
6/8 |
| Beer |
9 |
20.8 |
5.8 |
8/8 |
| Hauritz |
1 |
157.0 |
8.3 |
1/8 |
Hogg (0/44 off 3) and Beer (0/39 off 4) had their worst games of the tournament in the Big Semi Final, but this was as much to do with the slippery conditions as anything else. Beer has bowled his four-over spell in each game, Hogg in 6 of 8 completed games and Hauritz just once, in the semi against the Renegades. If the spinner bowl tightly, this is one area that will help the Scorchers gain an advantage.
The Heat and Scorchers both have quality pace bowling attacks, let’s compare:
| Brisbane |
Wkts |
Econ |
Perth |
Wkts |
Econ |
| Roach |
2 |
7.3 |
Thomas |
12 |
6.0 |
| McDermott |
8 |
8.4 |
Behrendorff |
7 |
8.8 |
| Cutting |
11 |
6.1 |
Coulter-Nile |
9 |
7..6 |
| Christian |
9 |
9.1 |
|
|
|
By the numbers, Thomas would appear to have a clear advantage over Roach. While Roach has just two wickets, his economy is quite acceptable. McDermott and Behrendorff are even, but McDernott has a great yorker. Cutting has wickets on the board and a superior economy rate to Coulter-Nile. Christian is the clear wildcard with the ball. His numbers in winning games versus losing matches below:
| Wins (5) |
Losses (4) |
| Wkts |
Econ |
Overs |
Wkts |
Econ |
Overs |
| 7 |
9.00 |
16 |
2 |
9.2 |
10 |
Not much difference in economy rate, but wickets wise, when the Heat wins, Christian is amongst it.
RECENT FORM
The Heat had a slow start, winning just 1 of their first 4, but since then have then have won 4 of their last 5. The Scorchers lost their first two, but have won 6 of the last 7. Not a lot in those numbers either.
RESULT
It’s a hard game to tip a winner, as the numbers are very close. It may depend the Marsh v Pomersbach head to head or
on the all-rounders battle, between Christian v Coulter-Nile. After all that, I’ve tossed a coin and it’s landed for the Heat!! Enjoy the Final!!
