Big Bash: The race for the finals

Adelaide Strikers – 1st (6 wins, 1 loss)

at Renegades (Jan 18)

Sitting on 12 points with one match remaining, Adelaide will play in the BBL finals for the second straight season and crucially, they will host a semi-final next week.

The winner of the Scorchers-Stars clash at #TheFurnace on January 16 will determine the other host, while Adelaide can finish on top if they defeat the Renegades on Monday, setting up a showdown against the fourth-ranked team (likely to be the Renegades or Thunder). Should they finish second, they would likely play one of the Scorchers or the Stars. 

WATCH: Head's incredible haul of sixes

Perth Scorchers – 2nd (5W, 2L)

v Stars (Jan 16) 

The thrilling one-run win over the Hobart Hurricanes on Sunday guaranteed the Scorchers a record fifth-straight semi-final appearance.

With only one match left, against the Melbourne Stars on Saturday, the Scorchers can finish on top of the table if the Adelaide Strikers lose to the Renegades at Etihad on Monday.  

At worst, the Scorchers can finish third if they lose to the Stars. 

Net Run Rate (NRR) could determine the final order of the top four, and fortunately for Perth, they possess the best NRR of 0.616. 

WATCH: Klinger's clinical run chase

Melbourne Stars – (4W, 2L)

v Heat (Jan 14), at Scorchers (Jan 16)

The win over the Renegades on Saturday night has the Stars in the box seat for a finals berth, although they still have some work to do if they want to claim a home semi-final.

First, they need to defeat the Brisbane Heat at the MCG on Thursday night. If they can do that AND pull off a tricky victory against the Scorchers at #The Furnace on Saturday night, they can claim an important home semi-final. However, defeat will see them heading to either Adelaide or Perth. 

WATCH: KP powering Melbourne Stars

Meanwhile, loss to the Heat would leave the door ajar for the chasing pack to overtake the Stars in the top four and might make their game in Perth on January 16 a must-win encounter, although they do have the safety net of a higher NRR.

Depth in the Stars camp is sure to be tested over the next week, with James Faulkner, Glenn Maxwell, Scott Boland and John Hastings all away with the national side.

Melbourne Renegades 4th (3W, 4L)

v Strikers (Jan 18)

The Renegades could make history as the first BBL team to qualify for finals with six points, but they need to beat the Strikers at Etihad Stadium on Monday to be absolutely sure of their place in the four. Boosting their hopes is the return of Australian paceman James Pattinson, who could lend their attack the potency it needs to topple the in-form Strikers.

They moved ahead of the Thunder after their crucial win on Monday, and with their NRR similar to the Thunder's, and the Hurricanes out of the running, that win might just be enough to sneak into the top four.

Things become more difficult if the Thunder topple the Sixers in the Sydney Smash. 

WATCH: Brilliant Bravo boosts Renegades

Sydney Thunder – 5th (3W, 4L)

at Sixers (Jan 16)

It was all looking rosy for the Thunder when they won their first three matches of BBL|05, but four losses since has them precariously placed with just one game remaining.

Their loss at home against the Renegades on January 11 could prove very, very costly. They now need to defeat the Sydney Sixers and rely on the Renegades losing to the Strikers on Monday to ensure a spot in the finals. They'll also need to do it without star batsman Usman Khawaja, who has been called away on Australian one-day duties with David Warner on paternity leave. 

WATCH: Another half century for Mr Cricket

Hobart Hurricanes – 6th (3W, 5L)

It's all over for the Hurricanes for BBL|05, with Wednesday's loss to the Strikers putting paid to their finals hopes. With all eight games behind them, the Hurricanes sit on just six points and their poor net run rate means they cannot sneak into the top four. 

The difference between their season staying alive and ending came down to just one ball at Adelaide Oval on Wednesday night, after some good death bowling left the Strikers requiring a boundary from the final ball for victory.

As fate would have it, the son of a South Australian legend - Jake Lehmann - struck a massive six from his first-ever ball in the BBL to steal the points in front of a sell-out Adelaide Oval crowd. 

WATCH: Tim piles on the Paine

Sydney Sixers 7th (2W, 5L)

v Thunder (Jan 16)

Sunday's loss to the bottom-placed Heat made it improbable, but not impossible, for the Sixers to qualify.

The Strikers defeating the Hurricanes ticked one box for the men in magenta, but they still need the following to occur: Sixers beat the Thunder in the Sydney Smash on Saturday, and for the Strikers to defeat the Renegades at Etihad on Monday. Even then, it would depend on margins as net run rate would come into play.

It's a slim chance, with NRR a big factor, but hey, it's a shot. 

WATCH: Hobbling Haddin hits out

Brisbane Heat – 8th (2W, 5L)

at Stars (Jan 14)

Hope springs eternal for the Heat, who have the slimmest of slim (some could even say delusional) chances of making the BBL|05 play-offs with just one match remaining, against the third-ranked Melbourne Stars at the Melbourne Cricket Ground.

To achieve this, a lot would need to go right for the Heat. First, they would need to beat the Stars by a whopping margin and rely on the Sixers beating the Thunder by the barest of margins on Saturday.

It's unlikely to happen, but more realistically, the Heat can deny the Stars the chance of a home final with a win at the MCG on Thursday.

WATCH: Lynn hits many sixes